A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that split the country and caused disorder, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in academia but very few elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. They authors two essays that aim for objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an recognition of the idea that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland must work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a negligent official who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has has something to acquire from the opposing positions."
Request for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish matter."
